psychological biases


Listened to the full speech by Charlie Munger (text). I think there are cheat sheets of cognitive biases that I need to add into my mental model and thinking system. Munger talks about psychological biases which we need to be aware of in our own behavior and also would be good to know in dealing with others – if we use these to engineer common good (not to manipulate for evil purposes).

  1. Power of incentives – using incentives to drive behavior. But I guess carrot / stick might work only to certain extent (learning from “Drive”). Examples - FedEx starting night shift allowance which allowed them to get people for night shifts. Reinforcement.
  2. Simple psychological denial - "The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it's bearable." A mom refusing to believe her son is dead.
  3. “Bias from consistency and commitment tendency, including the tendency to avoid or promptly resolve cognitive dissonance. Includes the self-confirmation tendency of all conclusions, particularly expressed conclusions, and with a special persistence for conclusions that are hard-won.”
“Human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one can't get in. The human mind has a big tendency of the same sort.
if you make a public disclosure of your conclusion, you're pounding it into your own head.” 
“The Chinese brainwashing system, which was for war prisoners, was way better than anybody else's. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations, and then they'd slowly build.”
  1. “Bias from Pavlovian association, misconstruing past correlation as a reliable basis for decision-making.” Dog salivates when bell rings. Operant conditioning.
  2. Bias from reciprocation tendency – do a small favor first and ask for return, increases chance of others reciprocating.
  3. Bias from over-influence by social proof, that is, the conclusions of others, particularly under conditions of natural uncertainty and stress. Following what the community / group does or does not do.
  4. Bias from contrast caused distortions of sensation, perception, and cognition. Frog dying in water that is slowly getting heated. People dipping their hand in room temperature water after dipping first in hot or cold feels room temperature water is vice versa. Contrast. Overprice first, then show medium price and people accept.
  5. Bias from over-influence by authority. Milgram prisoner torture experiment. Co-pilot doesn't call out pilot's obvious faults in 25% cases.
  6. Bias from Deprival Super Reaction Syndrome, including bias caused by present or threatened scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed but never possessed. Scarcity bias. People do not react symmetrically to loss and gain. 
  7. Bias from envy/jealousy
  8. Bias from gambling compulsion
  9. Bias from liking distortion, including the tendency to especially like oneself, one's own kind, and one's own idea structures, and the tendency to be especially susceptible to being mislead by someone liked.
  10. Bias from disliking distortion. The reciprocal of liking distortion and the tendency not to learn appropriately from someone disliked.
  11. “Bias from the non-mathematical nature of the human brain in its natural state as it deals with probabilities employing crude heuristics and is often mislead by mere contrast. The tendency to overweigh conveniently available information and other psychological rooted mis-thinking tendencies on this list when the brain should be using the simple probability mathematics of Fermat and Pascal, applied to all reasonably attainable and correctly weighted items of information that are of value in predicting outcomes. 
  12. Bias from over-influence by extra vivid evidence.
  13. “Mental confusion caused by information not arrayed in the mind and theory structures creating sound generalizations, developed in response to the question why. Also mis-influence from information that apparently but not really answers the question why. Also failure to obtain deserved influence caused by not properly explaining why.
    You've got to array facts on theory structures answering the question why. If you don't do that, you cannot handle the world.
    You want to persuade somebody, you really tell them why. And what did we learn in lesson one? Incentives really matter. Vivid evidence really works.”
“The clear answer is the combination greatly increases power to change behavior, compared to the power of merely one tendency acting alone.“ Multiple factors from above can combine in a transaction.  

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